by Gregg Pearlman
This is not an impressive group. I don't want to go on at too much length here, mostly because the running notes cover this stuff, but it's time to give a preseason, position-by-position rundown of the San Francisco Giants to date:
It was a hell of a scare when first reported that Snow would bat third, ahead of Barry Bonds, because I always thought the ideal lineup had your best hitter batting third, not one of your worst. Lately, though, it looks as if he'll bat fifth -- which is nearly as bad. That means that in those games against lefthanded starters in which a brain-cramped Dusty Baker decides to bat Glenallen Hill third and Bonds fourth, Bonds will walk four times. On this team, seventh would be about the right place for Snow to bat.
Here's how J.T. stacked up last year against the Giants' four main first basemen, Mark Carreon, David McCarty, Dan Peltier, and Desi Wilson:
AB R H RBI 2B 3B HR TB AVG OBP SLG BB HBP SO Giants' 1b, 1996 644 69 161 96 29 3 17 247 .250 .316 .384 59 5 112 J.T. Snow 575 69 148 67 20 1 17 221 .257 .327 .384 56 5 96
First base was rightly perceived as a major problem last year, and we're told it's been solved this year. If so, do tell me how.
Also, let's bear in mind that by any relevant statistical measures -- look at the running notes (such as the "Winter Bitch-Fest") for more on this -- Snow's defense leaves a lot to be desired, mostly in the sense that he has the range of a minus-four-watt radio station.
So what are the alternatives? Well, that's up in the air. First, Snow himself only played for the first time yesterday, as he's been battling a stomach bug for over a week. Second, Desi Wilson broke a hamate bone on a check-swing. That pretty much leaves David McCarty (in camp as a nonroster player this year), Rich Rowland (a catcher who doesn't even hit well for a catcher -- although he homered in yesterday's split-squad game against the Padres, which was a disturbing sign), and Stan Javier, who's an outfielder, not a first baseman.
I'm rooting for McCarty. There was something in him last year that I liked, especially early on. First, he showed the ability to come off the bench cold and get a needed hit. Second, even when he wasn't hitting early on, he was drawing walks up the wazoo. Mainly I want him to make the team because of the Trade Chain, which I'll detail in another article. Many fans, especially on the Giants newsgroup, are very much in favor of giving a guy like Keith Williams a chance. Williams, an outfielder, spent a few weeks with the Giants in 1996 and was unspectacular, though not conspicuously bad or anything. He's evidently one of the few outfield prospects in the system with significant power. However, shortly after the season, the Giants outrighted him to Phoenix, and I haven't seen evidence yet that he's even in camp with the big club.
(Note: Now that I've gone and said all these awful things about J.T. Snow, an errant Randy Johnson fastball has resulted in the fracture of the lower orbit of his left eye. No word yet on how long he'll be out. I hope he recovers quickly and completely.)
I do believe, however, that he could outhit J.T. Snow even if he has a fairly bad year, so that's a plus of sorts. But Giants fans are going to expect a hell of a lot of production out of him in hopes of offsetting the loss of Matt Williams -- a loss which, I'm convinced, will be more devastating than the trade of Jack Clark before the 1985 season. Jon Miller said in yesterday's game broadcast that the knock on Kent is that he doesn't get the big hits, but no sooner were the words out of his mouth than Kent drove in a pair with a base hit, so that gave me a modicum of faith.
Among the guys who might be expected to back him up are Rich Aurilia, Mark Lewis, and Bill Mueller. (I'm hoping that the nonroster infielders such as Eddie Zosky and Chris Martin won't be a factor.) Of these, none is a natural second baseman, though I'd expect Aurilia to be the best. Had the Giants kept Williams, there's a good chance Mueller would be the front-runner for the second base job; he's a natural shortstop (as are the other two, though Lewis isn't a good one) who's been playing third, and I'm reasonably confident he could handle second. He doesn't hit for much power (though he homered yesterday), and he's more suited to "offensive second baseman" than "offensive third baseman." Aurilia should be the starting shortstop, but we'll get to that later. Lewis is probably the guy who'll play second most, behind Kent.
I don't know much about his glove, but evidently he and Kent are very comfortable working together, which may mean nothing, but it's reasonably encouraging.
The reasons Aurilia should be starting are (a) he's significantly younger than Vizcaino and therefore has more time left in him, and (b) he's way less expensive, meaning that if it's true that they're quite similar players, hiring Vizcaino was just plain foolish, albeit typical of Brian Sabean to date.
When the Giants chose not to sign Shawon Dunston, they said Aurilia was now the shortstop. But shortly thereafter came the Williams deal, and suddenly Aurilia was the backup. Now I'm wondering whether he'll make the big club out of spring training or whether the Giants would rather have him play every day at Phoenix. If so, who will he be holding back?
When the Williams deal came down, it really looked as though the Giants were ready to go with Bill Mueller as their third baseman after a .330 showing in 200 at-bats, with some walks and a few doubles, as well as a pretty good glove. And that would've been livable, especially assuming Mueller batted second or even first (though he has no discernible speed). But no. The team had to go out and get Lewis. The worst part here is that Lewis was acquired as a $700,000 player, but he got a bump up to $1.6 million after arbitration -- meaning that he'll play, by God, because the higher-ups aren't gonna want a $1.6 million player sitting on the bench.
So will Mueller make the club? He's hitting very well, so early indications say yes. I have this fear, though, that he'll get two hits in his first 12 at-bats -- his entire April output -- and be sent down, which would allow the Giants to breathe a sigh of relief in that there'll be less fan pressure to play this talented kid over a profoundly overpaid platoon player.
I expect Kent to put in a few innings at third this year -- maybe even start there from time to time, or become the third baseman for some reason. But while he's a good hitter for a second baseman, I don't believe he could meet the offensive demands for a third baseman.
Bonds says he was "devastated" by the Williams trade, and I have no doubt that's true. He'll go crazy with no pitches to swing at. Then again, who knows? He might get pitches to hit because there's no one behind him who can hurt people. And, of course, he'll bring his terrific defense to the table.
His backup might well be Marvin Benard. Or Darrin Jackson. Neither is too appealing a prospect, but Benard at least is likable, and Jackson probably won't be around anyway. Another possibility is Jacob Cruz, but he'll be up anyway when Glenallen Hill gets hurt.
The biggest red flag with this guy is that he doesn't walk much. His lifetime on-base percentage is around .350, which is probably about league average nowadays. You might be thinking, "Oh, hey, an average OBP's not so bad," but once again, let's add some context: for one thing, league averages are contributed to by bad players as well as good players; for another thing, a league-average OBP is horrific for a leadoff hitter. Now, it's too much to expect an annual OBP of .420, but heck, .380 wouldn't be bad (in a .350 league, I mean). Let's say Hamilton bats 600 times, hits .300, and walks a tiny bit more than usual -- say, 60 times: that's a .300 batting average -- which Brian Sabean and the local media would crow about, to the effect of, "I told you so!" -- but only a .364 OBP, which is still higher than previous numbers might lead us to expect, but still not good enough. A .380 OBP would mean eleven more walks, which could make a big difference.
Backing up Hamilton are guys like Benard and Stan Javier -- the latter is pretty much the same player as Hamilton, albeit less expensive; less injury prone? We'll see.
The guy who probably should be playing center field is Dante Powell, who's ripping it up during spring training and who looks legit, but he'll no doubt spend most of this season at Phoenix.
And the defense -- oh, God. This man may well be the worst right fielder in team history; even Kevin Mitchell was a less tentative outfielder, though Hill will take the occasional ill-advised risk, such as the one that led to his devastating broken wrist last May. Hill is an outfielder who desperately needs late-inning defensive replacements.
Backing him up are Javier and Benard, though I do expect Jacob Cruz to spend some time there.
It's been assumed for a few years that he's basically a washout. Since his 30-homer year in Wrigley in 1993, he's been awful. However, he's had a terrible neck problem since then, and evidently it only started going away once his plane touched down in SFO. Either way, if this guy will be anything like the player he was in '93, I'll take him.
I'm less thrilled about his backups. First, Tom Lampkin was traded -- then replaced with more or less the same player, albeit older and way more expensive: Damon Berryhill, who hadn't played since 1995. Berryhill's trying to return from injuries as well, but he's never been a particularly good hitter, so what's the point? Still, he's trying to make the club as the third catcher, and he probably will.
The second catcher will probably be Marcus Jensen, who's been highly touted for some time, though his brief major league trial last year showed that he was overmatched by major league pitching. Still, he's supposed to be a terrific defensive catcher with a great arm, so he probably should be with the team this year. Also, he's out of options, so if he plays himself off the roster, the Giants will have to try and pass him through waivers if they want to send him down; he won't clear, meaning that he'll end up with another team that'll use him right, and in two years he'll be making people forget about Mike Piazza or something.
Also in camp are Rich Rowland and Doug Mirabelli. The latter had a few at-bats with the Giants last year and showed little aside from a profound lack of speed. However, he seems a more likely candidate for Catcher of the Future than Jensen does, and he could probably use a year at Phoenix. Rowland, however, is about 30 and has washed out in a couple of organizations. He seems to be a righthanded-hitting version of Lampkin. Frighteningly, because of the injury to Desi Wilson, he's been logging innings at first base. He's one of those guys I'm afraid will make the club.
They're saying that Fernandez' rotten performance early on was due to anxiety over his family not being able to get out of Cuba, and they may be right, because once they landed in Miami (or wherever), he started kicking butt. I'm confident that he can give the Giants a generally solid performance over the long haul. The one being called the ace is Gardner, which scares me. What I see is Mark Leiter all over again. And Rueter, I think, could do a fine job. He had some excellent starts near the end of the season.
Tavarez is a huge question mark. He was terrific in 1995 as a rookie, then rotten last year. He seems to be a bit of a head case, and my theory as to why the Giants picked him up is that they miss having Salomon Torres around. But if he's really as good as he was in '95, that'll help Beck out a lot.
Poole pitched extremely well last year for the Giants. Most of his appearances were brief, and my recollection is that he got hammered in only two games -- both appearances lasting a couple of innings. This should tell somebody that he needs to be a lefty specialist, or at least a one-inning guy, maybe the setup guy, but the Giants evidently plan to use him in long relief. Go figure.
Henry is the Damon Berryhill of pitchers. That is, the Giants dumped Mark Dewey, then hired essentially the same pitcher for way more money. He had a great year for Milwaukee early on -- a 1.00 ERA in more than just a couple token appearances -- but it's been downhill ever since. I do not predict great things for this guy.
Carlson has pitched awfully well this spring. He's only been in the Giants' chain since about 1812, got a chance to show his stuff late last year, and was impressive then, too. He's won consistently throughout the organization, and (though serious statheads would deride and chide me for saying this, since "wins" don't really tell much about a pitcher) he led the PCL in wins last year. You can say he has plenty of experience --just not at the major league level. Yet. Villano owns this year's "Highly Touted Prospect" label. He's gotten cuffed around in the couple of games I've heard him pitch this spring, but evidently his minor league numbers are awesome. I fully expect to see him in a Giants uniform before long.
This team does not give me lots of hope. I expect more changes as the season wears on -- especially in the form of injuries and one or two profoundly stupid trades -- and I optimistically predict 70 wins. Sigh.